Determinants of voter turnout

Abstract

In this study, we analyze how sociodemographic characteristics, level of political identification, level of ideological identification, risk aversion, and cognitive biases affect the probability of voting. For that effect, we use a database of about 103 individuals and apply factor analysis to estimate the dimensions that capture cognitive biases, risk aversion, the level of political identification, and the level of ideological identification. Subsequently, through the estimation of a logit model, we examine how each variable affects the probability of voting based on their average marginal effects. We find that risk aversion, and cognitive biases, namely overconfidence and winning effect, significantly influence the likelihood of voting. We also find that ideological identification negatively influences the likelihood of voting.