Compliance and stringency measures in response to COVID-19: A regional study

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak had a severe impact on governance, individual and collective wellbeing, public health, education, and the economy. The progression of infections in every country varied based on every country’s response, particularly its early response, and its capacity to enforce compliance. At the same time, country responses were determined by various factors (political climate, economic capability, social response, as well as demographic factors). This regional study looked at the policy response and COVID-19 daily case progression of 13 MENA countries in order to assess the effectiveness of stringency measures in managing the spread of the virus. This study also looks at the results of a pilot survey administered in the Middle East, as well as data released by the authorities of some of the countries under study, to evaluate compliance. The results show that stringent measures, imposed quickly but not for extended time periods, are most effective in lowering the number of daily infections. However, the success of these policies relies on a country’s institutional capacity to enforce compliance. The results from the pilot survey show that, while people whose risk perception of the virus is higher are more likely to comply with preventive behaviors, compliance significantly decreases with time. This has important implications in supporting stringent short-term policies that can be rolled back if accompanied by a comprehensive prevention strategy that harnesses behavioral insights to increase voluntary compliance with preventive measures.